by James Buchanan
The latest delegate count going into New York has Trump with 744 delegates, and Ted Cruz after much cheating and swindling with 559 delegates. New York has 95 delegates, and even though it isn’t winner-take-all, the polls are so much in Trump’s favor that it’s believed he’ll take the vast majority and probably all 95 delegates.
Other polling from Real Clear Politics shows Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Connecticut as well as New York. Most of the upcoming states are primaries where people are allowed to vote, which is good news for Trump and bad news for Cruz. Trump also seems to be doing especially well with east coast states, where Cruz doesn’t seem to have much support.
Even better for Trump is the fact that many of the upcoming states are “winner take all,” so if Trump gets the most votes, he gets all the delegates.
Let’s say Trump gets 95 out of 95 in New York (not winner take all, but he’s doing very well there), followed by the April 26th primaries which would include:
18 out of 28 in Connecticut
16 out of 16 in Delaware (winner take all)
38 out of 38 in Maryland (winner take all)
71 out of 71 in Pennsylvania (winner take all)
18 out of 19 in Rhode Island
That would be 256 more delegates by April 26th and a grand total of 1,000 delegates for Donald Trump by April 26th.
Trump is way ahead in “winner take all” California which would be another 172 delegates which would get him to:
1,000 + 172 = 1172
So Trump would only need 65 delegates from the remaining states to reach 1,237.
Trump has a very good chance of getting enough delegates on the first vote assuming Ted Cruz and the RNC don’t cheat him too much in future states. The mainstream media keeps acting like a brokered convention is the most likely outcome. That may be the outcome the anti-Trump liberals in the media want, but an analysis of the delegate math shows that Trump will probably win.
You can add to this, the fact that a high-ranking RNC individual said that Trump would probably still get the nomination even if he fell 100 delegates short. Trump getting within 100 delegates of 1,237 seems like an absolute certainty.
Ironically, Ted Cruz will come out of all this not just a failed presidential candidate in 2016, but a failed human being. Everyone saw him cheat Ben Carson in Iowa. His prolific lying throughout the campaign earned him the nickname “Lyin’ Ted,” and his rival Marco Rubio dug up information on a series of mistresses, which the National Enquirer published.
Even worse is the perceived cheating in Colorado and Wyoming where Cruz managed to get all the delegates without the Republican voters of those states getting a chance to participate.
If Cruz had run an honest, clean campaign, he would have still wound up in second place with perhaps a hundred fewer delegates, but he would not be perceived as a cheat and a liar and he might still have a political future. Unfortunately the real Ted Cruz is a cheat and liar. Ron Paul has publicly stated that Goldman-Sachs “owns” Ted Cruz.
Thankfully, Mr. Cruz and his political career is spiraling down the historical drain, and Donald Trump is increasingly likely to be the Republican candidate in 2016.